Untrends

That’s funny!

Pundits, futurists and analysts are known for putting a stake in the ground in respect of what lies ahead. Based on their predictions for 2019, this exercise might now best be seen as a form of delightful entertainment, much like when children share their views of what it is like to be an adult.

But, it’s got a logo!

Over the years the trend in forecasting became less about prediction and more about market making. If enough influential people could be convinced that next year was the year of graphene, quantum computing and even bigger data then it would be a lucrative year for the forecasters.

I am struck by the gall of some forecasters.

They present their predictions with such assurance that each trend has its own catchy name and logo.

More often than not, it is a recycling of a trend that did not emerge as predicted several years ago. Hopefully, this time around the meme will spread and will thus make selling the associated services easier.

We are not in Kansas anymore

The reality is that we now live in a post-trends world. It was easy to predict trends when life was more predictable. I call this more innocent time the era of synthetic certainty. But thanks to conflating and compounding macro-environmental forces, disruption is on an ever-increasing ascent and thus we can wave goodbye to predictability in business and society.  

You might argue that Covid-19 is likely to taper off in 2022 and thus we will see a decrease in domestic violence. But even if that were true, how will it be affected by a ramp-up in the US-China fight for global hegemony? And even if that is put on hold because they have decided what’s best for the planet trumps economic chaos.

But then what about your carpet cleaning robot, who has been carefully studying you, particularly when working from home, and whose learning algorithm has picked up enough information to now apply for your job?

Self-important bipeds

There is a fundamental misunderstanding in business texts in respect of disruption. There is an underlying belief that disruption is a tool organisations wield to unsettle their competitors, dismantle markets and create new markets. This is a very parochial perspective. As mentioned, there are many macro-environmental forces at play that again makes mankind appear to have some naïve notions about the wider world we inhabit. You can imagine beetles and other well-established superspecies, tutting to each other, “Here we go again. Jumped up arrivistes.” 

Ye Gods!

So is the future totally unknowable? Well yes. A minor displacement in the Earth’s orbit brought about by the solar activity, perhaps triggered by Chaos and Jupiter having a fit of the giggles as they witness mankind’s behaviour, would mean ‘game over’ and I don’t just mean your quarterly earnings forecast falling short.

But beyond Acts of Gods, world leaders, neo-Stalinism and the exponential growth of information technology, and biotechnology, we can be sure of one seismic trend.

The industrial era model that we have cherished for several hundred years has had its day. Process has to cede to Innovation (modern day mythological gods?) and that will change rather a lot in respect of society and business.  

Cuddle me!

It is worrying that, many leaders do not see the big picture and rather than adapt their business model for an unknowable future, they are endeavouring to recreate 2019, ie pre-covid. This is like a child seeking certainty and safety by reaching for its comfort blanket or watching its favourite Disney film for the umpteenth time.

The forecasters offer false hope to such CEOs by essentially saying, “Forget about transformation based on what is really happening and invest in AI and a 3D printer and you’ll soon be good to go!”

This is accurate if we interpret ‘go’ as meaning, leave the market. If we fail to take our next steps very carefully, that might well apply to all humanity.

Here’s to a more intelligent new year.