Crisis - We are running out of time

Historians are underrated. Perhaps because history in school was often taught as a dry exercise in memorising dates and events. Yet without an understanding of history, we risk forgetting the hard-won lessons our forebears acquired at great cost. Citizens who have never experienced war, or its immediate consequences, are more likely to see it as a viable political instrument.

Cycles

Some historians look at the big picture. They have picked up on a repeating cycle of about eighty to one hundred years. Each new cycle is triggered by the culmination of a major crisis. Examples of such triggers include:

• The fall of the Roman empire

• The Black Death

• US and French revolutions

• US Civil War

• World Wars I and II.

We appear to be in the crisis stage of the current cycle. Historians might well suggest that 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis or the Pandemic were early indicators (pre-shocks) of the current crisis. The next cycle feels close.

Other indicators include:

• Disillusionment with authority – Government is failing the people.

• Extreme social and economic disparity – The rich are getting richer and the poor poorer.

• Ideological polarisation – We are right, and you are simply wrong.

• Self-centredness – The individual trumps the community.

So the conditions are perfect for a cycle change.

But there’s good news

Even though there is every possibility that the current crisis culmination may ‘end in a III’, what will follow is likely to include:

• Increased trust in authority.

• A significant reduction is social and economic disparity.

• Moderation.

• A focus on community and civility.

This will explain why elderly people value civility and politeness over being their ‘authentic selves’.

What does this mean organisationally?

Organisations that survive the current crisis need to be optimised for disruption. Organisations that thrive in the next cycle (at least for a decade or two) will also need to be human-centric. By that I don’t mean catering for the needs of the individual, but in catering for the collective needs of all stakeholders, including society and the planet.

Whilst profit is important in creating a viable organisation, creating value through growing assets (human capital, natural capital etc) will be the goal.

But how?

Decentralise leadership – Generally people are paid based on the value they deliver. Value is determined by the extent to which people can play a role in decision making. Thus the more we decentralise leadership, the more value creation is distributed across the organisation. Thus the spoils are more evenly shared. Ultimately this reduces social disparity and economic inequality.

Reward gracefulness – Recruit people who can disagree agreeably. People who do not leave a comet trail of anger as a consequence of their low emotional intelligence, think bullying and micro-aggressions. Imagine an organisation that is known for its results and its cheerfulness.

Focus on all stakeholders – Shareholders have rights too and this is not in any way an argument to dilute their interests. However, smart shareholders will realise that a happy society is good for business. Clearly some industries will not buy into this, particularly those that cultivate the notion that you are not enough (without their offering).

But keep in mind that a cheerful nation can co-exist with a well-armed nation. A fighter who knows they can defeat allcomers will likely be more good-natured; at least in social situations.

Stay alert – The post-crisis high will not last indefinitely. And even the culmination of a crisis doesn’t eliminate uncertainty and volatility. So build an intelligent organisation based on living system principles, where your people are collaborating cells.

Final thought

If you are a leader who frequently dreams of a people-less organisation run by AI agents, then there is no reason why you, a human, are needed. Companies such as Uber, Foxconn, Alibaba and Amazon are well on their way in this respect.

Nonetheless, we will still need organisations that recognise the value people can create through the expression of their cognitive potential. These organisations will attract the attention of investors and analysts (and the top talent), as they will also excel at capitalising on humanity’s innate superpower, our sociality.

This article also appeared in the Intelligent Organisation newsletter on LinkedIn.