Goodbyes are hard There are three types of existential threats: Goodbye organisation Adios humanity Au revoir the planet. Few of us truly contemplate a universe in which Earth no longer exists. Some of us are acutely aware that humanity is playing with fire. Yet my sense is that many leaders are giving too little attention — not only to the fate of humanity, but even to the survival of their own organisations. Black swans flock To assess risk when we talk about threats, we us

Historians are underrated. Perhaps because history in school was often taught as a dry exercise in memorising dates and events. Yet without an understanding of history, we risk forgetting the hard-won lessons our forebears acquired at great cost. Citizens who have never experienced war, or its immediate consequences, are more likely to see it as a viable political instrument. Cycles Some historians look at the big picture. They have picked up on a repeating cycle of about eig

Disruption revisited Disruption has always been part of organisational life. For quite some time it was something that companies (usually based in Silicon Valley) did to other companies. But today it also includes the wider macroenvironmental forces (both natural and manmade) bearing down on the organisation, as well as the internal disruption that these forces generate in respect of worker behaviour. Many of these forces are compounding, some exponentially. But they are also

Introduction This report captures some of the emerging trends that are largely driven by increasing disruption. These trends might well be indicative of a forthcoming reset in society. As you will read many of these trends are eroding the foundations upon which contemporary society rest. Individuals, organisations that acknowledge these trends and adapt accordingly will be at an advantage. It is particularly important that business, government and societal leaders acknowledge

You have a lot going on You are complex. No doubt those behaviour-triggering hormones swilling about within us have a role to play. We have multiple moving parts (for example, we contain trillions of energy producing mitochondria), so it is fair to say we are complex systems. The organisations we work with / for are similarly so. As is the environment in which organisations operate. Complex systems have certain characteristics, including: Many interacting components Emergent

The problem CxOs have always been told that strategy is the key to success—that a well-thought-out plan underpins organisational success. But what happens when the future refuses to be predictable? A 5-year plan becomes obsolete in 6 months. A single disruption (AI, regulation, geopolitical shift) derails an entire roadmap. The pace of change is faster than your ability to adjust. 📉 The result? Leaders get caught in decision paralysis—afraid to commit, but equally afraid to