Uncertainty is killing strategy

The problem

CxOs have always been told that strategy is the key to success—that a well-thought-out plan underpins organisational success.

But what happens when the future refuses to be predictable?

• A 5-year plan becomes obsolete in 6 months.

• A single disruption (AI, regulation, geopolitical shift) derails an entire roadmap.

• The pace of change is faster than your ability to adjust.

📉 The result? Leaders get caught in decision paralysis—afraid to commit, but equally afraid to do nothing.

The real problem isn’t just uncertainty itself—it’s that most organisations are still trying to fight uncertainty with rigid, outdated strategy models.

💡 What if the key to leadership today isn’t crystal ball gazing but developing better organisational adaptiveness?

A case study

One CEO I know had a carefully crafted 5-year roadmap for their company.

It was built on:

✔️ Market research

✔️ Trend analysis

✔️ Competitive positioning.

Then three things happened in 18 months:

🚨 A regulatory shift that changed the industry dynamics overnight.

🚨 A disruptive AI-driven competitor that redefined customer expectations emerged.

🚨 An economic downturn that forced budget cuts.

By the time their next board meeting arrived, a significant element of the strategy was irrelevant.

The problem? They had built their strategy on the assumption that the world would remain stable.

💡 Leaders often fail because they choose to follow their plan even when it starts to deviate from reality. A psychiatric disorder often acquired whilst attending business school.

Next steps

If traditional strategy isn’t working, what’s the alternative?

Smart leaders aren’t trying to predict the future—they’re designing their organisations to adapt to it.

🚀 Here’s how leaders can rethink strategy for an uncertain world:

✅ 1. Stop planning for a single future—build for multiple scenarios.

Instead of one rigid plan, create a set of adaptable strategies that flex as conditions change.

✅ 2. Shrink strategy cycles from 5 years to 6 months.

Your strategy should be a real-time, evolving process, not an annual checkbox exercise.

✅ 3. Invest in decision-making speed, not just data.

The problem isn’t too little data—it’s that organisations aren’t structured to respond fast enough when data changes.

📌 Most leaders focus on forecasting. The best leaders focus on adaptiveness.