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Black swan

Writer: Ade McCormack
Ade McCormack
Sep 24
1 min read

What is a black swan?

A black swan is a rare event that falls outside normal expectations, has an extreme impact and is often explained afterwards as though it could have been predicted. Popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the concept highlights the limits of forecasting.


Intelligent organisations build resilience and adaptiveness so they can respond to consequential surprises without needing to predict their precise form. It might be said that increasing disruption has caused black swans to flock together, thus compounding their impact.



 
 
The ideas continue to evolve

Follow my thinking and receive each new perspective as it's published. Together they explore how organisations can remain viable, vital and valuable in an increasingly unknowable world.

Navigation

Challenges → Lenses → Principles → Outcomes

The ideas on this website are organised as a journey:

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  1. The challenges leaders face

  2. The traditional organisational lenses used to address the challenges

  3. The principles that empower organisations to navigate an increasingly disrupted world

  4. The outcomes that ensure your organisation survives, thrives and matters.

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